Solid positive growth for global trade is projected through mid-summer by the DHL Global Trade Barometer, which increased to 66 points in March from 64 points in January when the newly-created index was first published.
The GTB is a new early indicator, based on large amounts of logistics data evaluated using artificial intelligence, and was developed in conjunction with the IT assistance of Accenture.
“With an index value clearly above 50, the DHL GTB continues to signal solid positive growth for global trade within the next three months,” the DHL says. “Furthermore, the increase indicates that growth is gaining momentum.”
The overall good prospects also are reflected in the numbers pointing to an increase in trade activity for each of the seven countries studied.
Compared to the findings in January, the improved global index is mainly driven by an increasingly positive outlook for Korean and U.S. trade. In contrast, the prospects for German trade eased after the strong peak that was reached in 2017.
India continues to show the highest index value of all seven countries included in the overall trade predictions, while the UK, after a modest decline since January, scores the same level as China at the lower end of the countries’ rankings.
The global air trade outlook drops slightly by one point compared to January, but remains very positive at 70, DHL says. The outlook for global air trade is pushed downward, by an expected slowdown in German and South Korean air trade growth. On the upside, air trade growth in China and the U.S. is expected to accelerate.
The outlook for global ocean trade improved to 63 points in March from 60 points in January. This growth is also driven by the United States and China, along with a strong increase predicted for South Korea, offsetting slightly reduced trade with the United Kingdom and Germany.