This year’s holiday retail sales will rise between 7% and 9% compared with the 2020 season, according to Deloitte’s holiday retail forecast.
Overall, Deloitte’s retail and distribution practice projects that holiday sales will total $1.28 to $1.3 trillion during the November to January timeframe.
The firm also forecasts that ecommerce sales will grow by 11-15%, year-over-year, during the 2021- 2022 holiday season. This will likely result in e- commerce holiday sales reaching between $210 billion and $218 billion this season.
Other observers don’t appear to be quite so optimistic, largely because of serious supply chain problems that are predicted to continue through the end of the year (AA, 9-15-21, P. 1).
“We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season,” observed Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.
“As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady.”
A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated, he said. “Further, ecommerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories.”
Rod Sides, vice chairman and U.S. retail and distribution sector leader for CBRE, pointed out, “While consumer concerns about health and safety have eased since the last holiday season, pandemic-influenced shopping behaviors continue to gain traction.”
He added, “Retailers who remain resilient to shifting consumer behaviors and offer convenient options for online and in-store shopping, as well as order fulfillment, will be poised for growth this holiday season, and into the new year.”